The Center Of The Google Vs Facebook War: The Like Button

-Facebook Sniper Crosshairs-By now it has become well known that Google is planning a competitor to Facebook. While many believe that it may be too little too late for Google, the reality is that it’s a matter of survival for the company at this point. Google’s automated algorithms have become inefficient in that their systems are somewhat easy to game and despite Marissa Mayer once claiming that search is 90 percent solved, the reality is that it isn’t anywhere close.

Every day I perform searches on Google which simply fail. For me, searching has become a rapid process of trial an error. Enter the Like button, the social solution to search, and the replacement of the link as a voting mechanism. The people as a whole are more effective at determining what content is relevant and most of those people are unfortunately not effective at creating links. Case in point: there were 126 million blogs as of 2009 (easy to create sites where creating links is easy) and there are now over 500 million Facebook users actively clicking on like buttons around the web.

While Mark Zuckerberg is consistently dismissive about his attack on Google, it’s not exactly a secret. He has on numerous instances made references to the Google’s information collection methods, most significantly in David Kirkpatrick’s recent book, The Facebook Effect (as described here).

Reduction Of Friction

The bottom line is this: the Facebook like button has completely reduced the friction for the common users to vote for content. As I’ve written on numerous instances, the reduction of friction will result in the like replacing the link. It won’t be immediate but it also won’t take too long. Google knows this and now they’re threatened big time. As a result, they’re bringing out the big guns. They’ve hired some of the top social media minds in the industry, they’ve acquired and invested in a number of social startups, and they’ve devised a plan which appears to focus on two things: privacy/friend groups (Facebook’s achilles heel, as described here) and the like button.

While I’m not quite sure what Google’s replacement for the like button will be, it’s pretty clear that it has to be something. The link will die slowly as the most important currency on the web. The biggest problem is that it’s too easy to game. With Google.me looming over Facebook (just as Facebook Questions looms over Quora), things are heating up.

According to Anthony Ha, the company is on “lockdown”. If Facebook really does have Google’s secret plan, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the company a little bit more motivated to begin churning out more improvements to the site in an effort to further solidify it’s position against the search giant. Whether or not employees are being advised to work longer hours is unknown, however Google must really have a solid Like button replacement if Facebook feels threatened.

If there’s some way that Google manages to launch their own like button and is able to use this new voting mechanism to impact search results, there’s no doubt that publishers will implement it. In the meantime however, Facebook is the reigning king of social and more importantly the “Like”. Personally, I think it’s important that Google should have a competitor moving forward and I’m personally rooting for Facebook, which despite 500 million users, is still technically the underdog.

Do you think Google’s impending “Facebook killer” will actually have a shot at damaging Facebook?

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30 Comments »

  1. 'it’s a matter of survival for the company [Google] at this point'?? Really?? Hahaha

    Comment by James R. Skinner — August 6, 2010 @ 7:29 pm

  2. The "Like" will never replace the link.

    I will link to an article in order to share information. For example, when Arizona passed its immigration law, I shared articles on both Google Reader and Facebook. But I certainly wouldn't "like" any of the articles.

    Furthermore, many of my friends and I actually *refuse* to "like" things (other than our friends' posts and comments, which are links!) through Facebook after the shenanigans they pulled with changing our profiles.

    Re Google searches, maybe you ought to try using some operators. "Liking" doesn't seem like any substitute for searching. A substitute for sharing a link to something you found using search, perhaps (though incomplete, as I stated above). But how do you like something until you find it?

    I'm rooting for Google. They have a better attitude and they have better products and services. The Google suite of services (incl. Gmail, Gchat, GVoice, GDocs, GCalendar, Picasa(web), etc) are so much more useful, deep, and easy to navigate than Facebook's offerings (messages, chat, events, photos). And trying to go through information on Facebook is still a cumbersome nightmare, especially compared with a Google search. It's good Facebook is putting some pressure on Google to innovate in social networking. But as far as I'm concerned, the only thing Facebook has going for it is the 500 million users, including a large number of my close (but spatially distant) friends, which obliges me to use their sucky services if I want to use minimal effort in keeping electronically connected.

    Comment by Dubious — August 6, 2010 @ 10:57 pm

  3. Nick, thanks for continuing to cover this very significant topic. That said, I think you are oversimplifying and overestimating how quickly the Like will replace the Link. Here's my thinking.

    To assess the probability of the "market's" mass adoption of the Like over the Link, we have to focus on Main Street, not Early Adopters. I believe the average Facebook user has about 120 friends. Most Main Street users and their friends use the Like button moderately at best, so it will be a long time before the Like button can replace the link. Certain categories would be relevant more quickly than others. For example, if you have a pack of friends in DC who like pizza, and you're looking for pizza, that's awesome. But most of the stuff you're looking for won't have appropriate "likes" for most users, so the Like button will remain an appetizer for a long time, not a main course.

    That could change far more quickly if organizations that set standards for their memberships would promote the Like button to their members in order to drive their reputations. The organization's "Like button"/endorsement.

    I don't have any inside information about Google, but I'll hazard that their energy is coming from a more general place. Everyone knows that WOM is king and social trumps algos when it's qualified social. However, as ifindkarma argued persuasively, Google has struck out thus far with social and, as a paragon of market leadership, Google must be getting unnerved that it can't crack the code.

    I agree with you that people will go for the Like as a first option whenever they can, but the link will reign as the default for quite a while.

    Comment by Christopher S. Rolly — August 7, 2010 @ 12:01 am

  4. The notion of "Like" replacing "link" betrays an apparent ignorance of reality. Google already has a built-in "Like" system, and has for years. It's called "The Click". Google tracks every click from their search results. A tracked click to a specific site is effectively a "Like", a vote, a call it what you will. A tracked click associated with a context-specific search query is not just a vote, it's a very powerful vote indeed – and talk about zero friction!

    The information about which links get clicked in the results from a specific search query is several orders of magnitude more powerful than a "Like" button could ever be – for too many reasons to list here – but most significantly because it is context-specific in a way that a herd-generated "thumbs-up" tally will never be. A basic "thumbs up" tally tells me absolutely nothing about a site's relevance to the specific information I am looking for, in the specific context I wish to find it. All a "Like" count tells me is that a site is popular with the herd for some peculiar herd reason that may have nothing at all to do with what I am looking for.

    The argument that "Likes" will supplant links is largely based on the idea that the herd will "Like" content at a much faster rate than content can ever be linked to. ("HTML is hard!") That is probably true, but the number of pages people "Like" is utterly dwarfed (understatement) by the number of search results that are clicked and tracked by Google. (Try getting your head wrapped around THAT database.) Besides, this whole idea ignores that the herd is very much a flavour-of-the-day creature, and is not terribly adept at doing much more than being a wind vane of popular culture. Sure, the herd can imply and impart a token of value to the content of a specific site in a way that can enhance a search algorithm, but it can not replace search algorithms altogether, nor would we want it to! (Visions of the nightmare world where all searches lead to Justin Bieber and Twilight web sites. Shudder. :)

    The fact is there is WAY more going on in Google's algorithms than PageRank link counts lending weight to a site's value. That's just one of the spices in their secret sauce, and judging the relative value and relevance of a site, based on the context-specific clicks it attracts, is another very important ingredient that has been in there for a long time now. Further, Google doesn't just stop at collecting "votes" for certain links either, they also fine tune results even further based upon your own personal search habits. This is not a witless company using antiquated technology, helplessly watching as they are obsoleted by people on Facebook outpacing their algorithms with an itchy Like-button finger.

    In short, I think you over-estimate the power and potential of the "Like" button, and underestimate what Google is already doing in the way of using social intelligence to enhance the relevance of their search results. The social networking herd "Liking" websites is not about to replace automated relevance algorithms, not now, not ever. It's certainly not threatening to unseat Google's dominance in the search arena.

    Comment by Graham Blake — August 7, 2010 @ 1:58 am

  5. On the subject of The Great Google-Facebook War, there may be no doubt that Google is interested in bringing the social networking world into their tent. If Google wants to lure that market, the iron is hot and the time to strike is now. In that sense it is now or never, but the only thing that is even remotely a possibility of being "too little too late" is a fully successful entrance into that social networking game, and that's it.

    The notion that it's a "matter of survival" for Google? That is utterly absurd. Google has revenues of $24 billion, net profit of $6.5 billion, and a market capitalization of $160 billion. To put that in perspective, their net profit is 8 times Facebook's estimated gross revenue. Facebook is barely on the same planet as Google, let alone in the same league.

    Facebook is the small fish here, and if anyone is going to be in a fight for survival it is going to be Facebook. Of the two, only Facebook risks losing everything by losing a battle for social networking dominance. If Google goes into direct competition with Facebook and fails, it will barely be a blip on their end of year financial sheet. If Google succeeds, and somehow manages to unseat Facebook, Facebook is finished, full stop. Google is hugely diversified, and social networking is not, nor will it ever be, their core business. The social network is all Facebook has, if they lose that there's nothing left.

    Comment by Graham Blake — August 7, 2010 @ 2:04 am

  6. Got to agree with James here. Kind of over-dramatic post.

    Sure, there are 500 million Facebook users – are they all using the Like button? There's no proof of that that I've seen yet.

    And the blog figures are only the ones registered on Technorati – there are a heck of a lot more than that around (and just wait until the Chinese web opens up).

    Also, the view that "the link will die slowly as the most important currency" is kind of a contradiction, since the Like button is a link in itself ;-)

    Comment by Danny Brown — August 7, 2010 @ 5:30 am

  7. Google is for search. Facebook is for community. Google is at risk of becoming the next Microsoft. And when it takes that approach to "ruling the world" it will end making Facebook stronger. Google is going to survive no matter what it happens with it's social media platform, but it will do nothing to even put a dent in Facebook.

    The problem Google faces is constantly trying to take what's already big and capitalizing on it. All of a sudden Google's new tool, software, etc becomes a "killer" of something else, but it has yet to "kill" any competition with the exception of search.

    Comment by Snapper Cridge — August 7, 2010 @ 5:54 am

  8. I know I shouldn't expect unbiased writing from a an all Facebook blog, so I won't.

    Comment by David — August 7, 2010 @ 7:24 am

  9. HAHAHA! I guess only a facebook maniacs hate searching of Google or have problem with Google Search.

    Comment by Sreenath Babu — August 7, 2010 @ 8:05 am

  10. Your article makes me laugh… lol!

    Google is a company that provides everything but a myspace community.

    Facebook provides nothing but a polished myspace community.

    It's only a matter of time before that becomes worthless and people move on to something better.

    Comment by g — August 7, 2010 @ 8:18 am

  11. This is getting really interesting. Facebook becoming such giant so quickly, Google a mega giant being threatened.

    A battle is getting started.

    But honestly, after seeing Wave's and Buzz's result, I don't think Google will manage to overthrow Facebook from their throned marketing positioning.

    Great post. Cheers

    Comment by BebopDesigner — August 7, 2010 @ 11:38 am

  12. Facebook can proudly declare they have 500 millions members, but wait! Are the members really 500 millions in number? You know what, I can have 100 accounts, will my 100 accounts are included in 500 millions? So in the reality, 500 millions members is not really 500 million people, but 500 millions accounts.

    Comment by Nagib — August 7, 2010 @ 1:15 pm

  13. Louis Gray said in his Buzz post on this article, "While I’m not quite sure what Google’s replacement for the like button will be, it’s pretty clear that it has to be something"

    I would say Google's like button would be;

    >> Sharing in Google Reader

    >> Posting to Buzz

    >> Following a site in GFC, the original Like gadget

    >> How many RSS subscribers you have in Google Reader

    >> Submitting the site to social bookmarking sites

    >> The performance of the blog post once it is submitted to social bookmarking sites

    >> On YouTube it's a like button, really, a like button

    >> On YouTube is is also full views of the video, comments, and sharing there too

    All of these factors influence Google rankings and have for quite some time now.

    You see, Facebook needs a like button because Facebook needs to be told what is going on around the web. Unlike Google which goes and finds out for itself.

    You should go back and read the 2005 BlogSearch patent owned by Google. The like button is weak in comparison to the "Indicators of quality" that is mapped out there over 7 years ago.

    Andy Beard was one of the first to publish on this and from his work we formulated what we call http://www.squidoo.com/blog-seo the Google Social Algorithm in 2008.

    Sorry if I seem harsh, but I don't know how else to put this. – Chris

    Comment by Chris Lang — August 8, 2010 @ 2:43 am

  14. This is a great article. days are not far when facebook will dominate the google.

    Comment by Pritam Nagrale — August 8, 2010 @ 10:31 am

  15. Earnestly, the whole thing seems somewhat silly. Google's software development in general is far and away the most powerful stuff being concocted. Their search engine has been relatively easy to control for ages, and the "clicks are google's like" is a totally goofy concept–most people EASILY click 12 different links on a given google search before finding what they're after. That's a highly inefficient system.

    As long as google can keep things like google earth going, they're in absolutely no danger. They can code circles around facebook, and that's obvious.

    I very rarely find myself using google anymore for much, but I have browser built-in searches for sites specialized to what I actually want to know… I don't imagine it "going away", but as for a competition with facebook, they're going about it the totally wrong way.

    If they had any sense about it, they'd be making facebook apps that integrate their own features into it, directing more on-facebook traffic through themselves.

    Overall, I don't think this is anything nearing "death" for google, but I don't terribly much mind either… their privacy policies over the years have honestly made the facebook gaffes look rather modest. They've long ago crossed over to being one of the "evil empires", I imagine a bit of humility from this might set them straight.

    Comment by mmm — August 8, 2010 @ 4:03 pm

  16. Somewhat overstated potentially but any of the commenters above who so confidently dismiss facebook as one dimensional (i.e. without relevance or semantic structure) should spend five minutes reading up on Facebook Opengraph and its metadata. The release on 23rd August provides enough functionality in the API to allow a like to register / share geodata, business type, image, description, address, phone, email, URL, (and a lot more) all in an extensible semantic structure that promotes sharing and has meaning. I'm neither pro-Google nor Facebook but please can people read up and get the facts and a bit of balance before getting inflamed. II agree the Google suite has better products. But they have had longer to refine.

    Comment by Jason TIll — August 8, 2010 @ 11:29 pm

  17. Personally I can't wait for the day when I can quit the sanctimonious, patronising, arrogant shambles that is Facebook – only the fact that my friends bizarrely insist on using it keeps me there. I wish luck to Google – or anyone else – who wants to devise a better alternative.

    By the way the ´500 million users' claim should be taken with a pinch of salt as it includes those with multiple accounts (despite what Facebook's own rules may say the practice is rife) and those which have been abandoned by their users but not (presumably because of the hurdles erected by Facebook to discourage it) deleted. The real figure for active individual users must be substantially lower than half a billion.

    Comment by John Mac — August 9, 2010 @ 7:25 am

  18. Facebooks like button will never be a threat to Google due to the wording of it and the fact that most Facebook users use Facebook to socialise. However both Digg's digg button and Twitter's retweet button can be considered a threat but neither have a large enough user base to threaten Google. Google should consider remaking something like Digg or Twitter if it wants to improve it's search engine.

    Comment by inSyt — August 9, 2010 @ 4:39 pm

  19. From a techies persepective i can see why you guys are pro Google but I think this article is on the money. Have you spoken to business people out there? the more savvy ones are investing in Facebook….why? because it has the demographics! You can actually reach the people you want! Google is an advertisers machine gun but Facebook is the sniper.

    Secondly the Facebook search engine can only get better, our Facebook searches will soon return results made up of various elements…What are our friends saying about X, what about in my area? Is there a group dedicated to X?

    Google is good for researching but crap if you want a good plumber thats close by…….Google MUST do something to compete with the Facebook sniper because Facebook has the ears of the advertisiers and will soon have more meaningful search capability….

    The horse has bolted, Google now plays catch up.

    Comment by Nicholas P Ivanoff — August 9, 2010 @ 11:25 pm

  20. Ah, so THAT'S why I joined Facebook, so that I could get the kind of information that a chat with my next door neighbour would have provided, and with the added pleasure that comes from social contact. 8-|

    Comment by John Mac — August 10, 2010 @ 2:45 am

  21. Remember "mobile phone, phooey, why would I want people to contact me anywhere?". Anyway, I don't think the debate is about human interaction. Noone is stopping you asking your neighbour.

    Comment by Nicholas P Ivanoff — August 10, 2010 @ 7:37 am

  22. Graham Blake – August 7th, 2010 at 5:58 am – I sure wish I could like and share your comment on this topic. i.e. LIKE button perfect. However your point of discussion would never be relevant in a search I'd do on Google for a Hotel in Decatur Illinois or Plumber in St Louis Mo. Thus FB needs to stay social and if Google wants to get more input/feedback from a searcher on whether or not a search result was relevant then a relevant yes-no button might be more suitable… PS Great post Greg. LIKE Thumbs Up

    Comment by Forrest Anthony Knig — August 19, 2010 @ 8:59 pm

  23. its a great post but the idea of "like" to be replaced with "link" is not a good one. Google has evolved strong in the past few years. the fight is only on one front that google wants to dominate the web and its only the social networking front where they dont.

    Comment by abhinav — August 24, 2010 @ 1:18 pm

  24. If you try to rule the world and try to provide everything you fail

    life tought as this so many times.. In fact, the only reason Google got there is because they choosed to do one thing and do it well with not looking at all any collateral ways to benefit or monertise them if they anyhow get in conflict with their main purpose. They had clear target From the time you split your powers you reduce the quality.. and if you thing quality is not reduced think that something can always get better if you put all your powers on it than if you put half. But i thing there wont be any problem as long as they can manage all those companies and services. Maybe it should be better to leave fb do what he wants and co operate with it at later stage. I ve always been thinking that google is the first step of internet organising as yellow pages and phone number is in real time and it has its limits as time passes people still use it but companies become stronger and new things come out that inevidabely will shade drammatically googles services need

    i mean internet will stabilize at some point websites will manage to control their ads with each other as in real life or through other smaller networks that suit more their needs.

    fb is clearly a next step and even it can not be compared now with google power it has strong potentials as an idea

    Maybe i m getting out of subject now and these all are just an opinion and nothing is clear as things change so dramatically

    very confusing thinking:) i know

    Comment by giorgos — August 27, 2010 @ 11:34 am

  25. i coming years facebook will take over some of Google products. What Google didn't realized with orkut was the social networking power, the of power of collaborate and work.

    Comment by Abhitosh — November 11, 2010 @ 7:38 am

  26. [...] O’Neil wrote a post in August entitled, The Center of the Google vs. [...]

    Pingback by Technology Global » Dear Facebook, Please Return Our Social Networking Space — December 20, 2010 @ 6:21 pm

  27. Added the Facebook Button to my Google toolbar as a shortcut but I have to sign in EVERY time I click on it–any button helpful suggestions??

    Comment by diane818 — February 7, 2011 @ 11:45 pm

  28. Hello Every one :
    Just a question, how did u find this website? By using google? or facebook?

    I think thats enough reasoning for today…

    Comment by Snperk — April 9, 2011 @ 12:03 pm

  29. there is an interesting article at http://telia.co.gr/blog/it-is-now-official-facebo... regarding the conflict.

    Comment by Greekgod — May 16, 2011 @ 5:27 am

  30. Thanks, this will help me in my article marketing efforts.

    Comment by JDC — August 12, 2011 @ 8:03 pm

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