Robert Scoble’s $45 Billion Website
Posted by Nick O'Neill on May 19th, 2008 10:02 AMRobert Scoble has posted an interesting yet somewhat off the wall post suggesting that once Microsoft acquires Yahoo’s search technology, they will then acquire Facebook for $15 to $20 billion. The acquisition of Facebook has already been discussed among a number of people previously but Robert’s rationale seems a little bit ludicrous.
Why does Robert thing that Microsoft will buy Facebook? Simply because Google can’t currently crawl through Facebook’s website. Facebook can then use Yahoo’s search technology to search within Facebook once it has both groups under its control. While the combined forces makes sense, this is an old way of thinking.
Robert suggests that “we will never get an open Web back if these two deals happen.” Are we really going to turn back the clocks and pursue an AOL walled-garden strategy? It has been proven that this model fails and people end up going elsewhere on the web. Why would it suddenly work this time?
Robert’s apparent conclusion is that search is the killer feature missing from Facebook and once it has it, there is no need to open up. Noticing that Robert’s post was made after 4 AM, I think he may have stayed up a little too late while planning Microsoft’s world domination.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:26 am
That’s a great excuse that I’m going to use on the Gillmor Gang today if Arrington comes after me.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Billions people, not millions…. all this talk is daft as..
May 19th, 2008 at 10:33 am
he also has another one..someone offered a bet on one of Scoble’s fb assumptions.. if Scoble looses he ha sot lip synch and Video tape it..
Scoble seems to be ducking and hiding form that bet..I wonder why?
May 19th, 2008 at 10:34 am
well, now that you mention it, Facebook’s search does leave something to be desired…
May 19th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Scoble seems to have a knack for this sort of thing becoming 75% true. I don’t know if I can see Zuck selling still, but after how the news cycle has pounded on Facebook in the last six months, he may very well want to bounce Facebook off.
If Facebook sells, I expect another social network, or more likely a new one, to gain momentum, even in this crowded space.
Its just a matter of time.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Nick: source of the story is here. Robert and Kara both credited the original source. Over the past three months I’ve posted at least 4 exclusive scoops that all have developed into big stories. It’s interesting to see who credits it.
http://furrier.org/2008/05/19/silicon-valley-rumor-microsoft-to-buy-yahoo-search-and-then-facebook/
May 19th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Why does Robert thing that Microsoft will buy Facebook?
engrish
May 19th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Nick: Great post. For 4 a.m., I think Robert made some very compelling points that, at a minimum, will foster some heated debate today.
I agree with you on merit though. A MSFT acquisition at that valuation I find ludicrous. But I also don’t find it has scary regarding the “world domination effect” for the very reason you point out. Why would we go back to the AOL walled-garden is precisely something I was thinking.
We’ve spent that last 10 years opening. I don’t think the value proposition of Facebook is compelling enough for users to stay behind the wall.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Breaking News! Scoble discovers yet more crackpot ‘news’ up his arse.
Quite why anyone listens to this individual is a mystery to me. Maybe if we ignore Scoble, he will go away.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
@John, I saw your news article and appreciate you posting it. I’m not crediting Scoble for breaking the news, I was simply commenting on Robert’s take on it.
He said “we will never get an open Web back if these two deals happen.” I had to post something about a ridiculous statement like that. Sorry about that!